| Day | Time | Event | Impact | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jun 1 | 10:00 ET / 21:00 ICT | ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) | ⭐⭐ | Signals manufacturing direction + input prices; affects cyclicals / AI semis |
| Tue Jun 2 | 10:00 ET / 21:00 ICT | JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) | ⭐⭐ | Gauges labor-market tightness, a lead-in to NFP |
| Wed Jun 3 | 08:15 ET / 19:15 ICT | ADP Private Payrolls (May) | ⭐⭐ | NFP preview; a big surprise can move markets |
| Wed Jun 3 | 10:00 ET / 21:00 ICT | ISM Services PMI (May) | ⭐⭐ | Services = large share of GDP; the prices component is a soft inflation gauge |
| Fri Jun 5 | 08:30 ET / 19:30 ICT | Nonfarm Payrolls + unemployment + wages (May) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Biggest event of the week; sets the Fed view before the Jun 16-17 meeting; moves stocks/bonds/crypto |
| Fri Jun 5 | All day | Fed blackout period begins (before Jun 16-17 meeting) | ⭐ | Fed officials go quiet; the market lacks guidance until the meeting |
| Tue-Thu (next week) | TBD | Tech/AI earnings e.g. Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom (Jun round) | ⭐⭐ | Software / AI-chip results may drive idiosyncratic volatility; recheck official dates |
| Risk | Level | Affects | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFP Jun 5 surprise ahead of the Fed Jun 16-17 meeting | 🔴 High | US stocks, bond yields, crypto | Hotter-than-expected jobs/wages cut rate-cut odds, pressuring growth/AI stocks and BTC; much weaker stokes slowdown fears — two-way volatility |
| Fed holds 3.50-3.75% and the Jun dot plot may be hawkish | 🟡 Medium | Liquidity-sensitive tech/AI stocks, crypto | The Jun 16-17 SEP meeting nears; a higher-for-longer signal pressures growth valuations and risk assets |
| Fed blackout leaves the market without guidance for 1-2 weeks | 🟡 Medium | Overall risk markets | From Jun 6 officials go quiet; the market reacts more sharply to raw data, raising short-term volatility |
| High concentration in AI/semiconductor stocks | 🟡 Medium | Nasdaq/S&P indexes, AI chip stocks | Indexes lean on a few megacaps; if ISM/data point to slowing demand, or chip earnings/supply-chain news hits, the whole index can drop hard |
| Crypto sensitive to liquidity and the dollar | 🟢 Low | BTC, ETH, altcoins | If NFP pushes yields/USD up, crypto usually pulls back with risk assets; but over 1-2 weeks there's no direct policy catalyst |
data/spread_history.jsonl every 15s · hover the chart for values